Democrats Warned Not to Swing to the Left
Yup, all we need is for more egotistical Liberal Democrats to throw extra monkey wrenches into the cogs of government… Yup, that’ll help us win the war…
For those Nancy Pelosi types in government, analysts suggest that they might think twice before pushing their ideological views, lest they risk losing the support of the American Public.
No big realignment in U.S. politics after midterm elections, analysts say
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Nov 14, 2006
No big realignment in U.S. politics after midterm elections, analysts say BETH GORHAM WASHINGTON (CP) – It would be a mistake to think the Democratic sweep of Congress in last week’s midterm elections indicates a major political realignment in the United States, the Pew Research Center said Tuesday.
In fact, the startling outcome can be traced to one major change: the shifting sentiments of independents and moderates, said president Andrew Kohut. “It’s no exaggeration to say that the views of the least ideological voters decided this election for the Democrats,” Kohut wrote in an analysis.
Although Democrats won the popular vote, it was by a thin margin similar to the one favouring Republicans in 2002. And despite a small turnout advantage for the Democrats, American voters remain about evenly divided between the two parties.
But independents who divided their votes evenly between President George W. Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry in 2004 swung decisively in favour of Democrats this year. Moderates also cast more votes for Democrats than in 2004, by a margin of 10 percentage points, said Kohut.
“The least religious Americans, voters who attend church rarely or never, made the biggest difference to the outcome of the election,” he said, giving Democrats 67 per cent of their vote, up from 55 per cent in 2002.
The results sound a cautionary note for Democrats tempted to take a hard swing to the left as they prepare to take over on Capitol Hill in January, said independent pollster Charlie Cook. They need to find the “sweet spot” in American politics that keeps moderates on their side, a trick mastered by former Democratic president Bill Clinton.
“This is the same country that just two years ago gave President Bush a minority, albeit barely, and re-elected him,” Cook wrote in a National Journal analysis.
“A big majority of those voters are mad about the war or about how the administration chose to conduct it and they just gave up on a Republican Congress that they began to see as unresponsive. But it is still the same country and the same people.”
Most Americans, said Cook, reside in the middle of the political spectrum. In this election, 47 per cent called themselves moderates, 32 per cent conservative and just 21 per cent liberal.
And they weren’t responding favourably to the issues that Republicans were stressing during the campaign.
The anti-terror fight, usually a winner for Bush and his party, wasn’t this time. Voters most concerned about terrorism gave Republicans a modest margin of five percentage points, with anger over the Iraq war colouring their opinions.
“Voters are no longer persuaded that Republicans know best how to deal with it,” said Kohut.
By a margin of 59 per cent to 35 per cent, voters said in exit polls that the war in Iraq did not improve U.S. security.
The Republican emphasis on illegal immigration also alienated Hispanic voters, who favoured Democrats 69 per cent of the time this year, up from 61 per cent four years ago.
The most energized voters in 1994 during the last big partisan swing when Republicans gained a majority in Congress were “angry white men” said Kohut, who supported a conservative platform of less government and lower taxes.
This time, young voters, women, seculars and Democratic-leaning liberals led the charge, he said.
But there’s no evidence the country is moving culturally or ideologically to the left.
Corruption scandals and performance failures like the aftermath of hurricane Katrina contributed to a low approval rating for Bush.
But Iraq was the central issue, said Kohut, with those who disapprove of the war favouring Democrats by 80 per cent to 18 per cent.
War supporters backed Republicans in their districts by the same margin but there were fewer of them, just 42 per cent compared with 56 per cent opposed.
Americans, though, are divided on how quickly U.S. troops should be pulled from Iraq.
“The only clear message is frustration.”
Voters appeared equally ambivalent about the economy, said Kohut.
Forty-eight per cent of people surveyed in exit polls rated the economy as excellent or good, yet those who said it was extremely important to them voted for Democrats by 59 per cent to 39 per cent.
“It might indicate the start of some significant political reaction to wage stagnation,” said Kohut.
Democrats have pledged to raise the minimum wage during their first 100 hours in charge.
