Russia’s Putin Willing To Risk New Battle With West
Nope, I’m not going to say anything… I’ll just sit here all smug, with an, “I told you so” grin…
Russia ‘hell bent’ on new Cold War
Intel report sees Putin willing to risk new battle with West
Posted: May 3, 2007
1:00 a.m. Eastern
A report by the Russian desk of Britain’s secret intelligence service sees a “growing possibility” President Vladimir Putin is prepared to resurrect the climate of the Cold War.
The report by MI6 chief John Scarlett to Downing Street comes at a time when a series of flashpoints are threatening to plunge relations between Russia and the West back into deep freeze – or possibly worse.
The report concludes Putin is willing to use Russia’s very substantial oil and gas reserves as leverage.
“He demonstrated that when he switched off the gas supplies to the Ukraine last year to win a political battle between Moscow and [Kiev]. Increasingly Europe, and ultimately Britain, will become dependent on Russian gas supplies,” the report says.
The MI6 analysts also have focused on the words Putin used to warn that Russia views U.S. plans to build a missile defense system in Europe – with Poland as its lynchpin – as increasing “the risk of mutual destruction.”
It is the first time since the height of the Cold War that a Russian leader has chosen such chilling words.
The former KGB officer – already furious at the way Britain continues to press its investigation into the murder of spy Alexander Litvinenko – has warned he was considering withdrawing Russia from the post-Cold War treaty intended to keep the peace in Europe.
Putin’s anger was further fueled by Britain’s criticism of Russia’s human rights abuses in war-torn Chechnya.
Alex Pravda, a Russian expert on Russia’s politics at Oxford University, said: “I have never seen Britain singled out for such critical comment. There is a new confidence and defiance in Russian foreign policy.”
3 May, 2007 at 8:31 am
Just a few comments
1. “The report by MI6 chief John Scarlett to Downing Street” – isn’t it supposed to be secret? Entering in Yahoo and Google key words “MI6 Cold War Russia” did not give references on that issues except for original and BIGGER version of the article, which is not posted here fully. I haven’t find anything on MI6 and Dwng st. 10 official sites either.
So where the hell it comes from?
2.The original article http://noisyroom.net/blog/?p=18893 ends with:
“The MI6 report ends by listing a number of key predictions:
Russia will strongly oppose the European Union’s support for independence for Kosovo. At the same time it will increase its own support for Iran.
Russia could eventually attempt to virtually cripple European economies by limiting countries like Poland, Germany, France and Italy to supplies of Russian oil and gas. For Britain that prospect is becoming serious. By 2020, reveals the MI6 report, “this country will depend on 90 percent of its gas from imports. Most of it will come from Russia.”
The issue of U.S. missiles could be the trigger point to a new Cold War. “Putin is very likely gambling that when a new U.S. president is elected, he will see the wisdom of not creating that missile shield. But the new president may also accept the argument that its presence is essential to deflect any attack from a ‘rogue state’ like Iran. It is then the Cold War could return.”
And some comments on this predictions
1. Kosovo – I guess we find understanding in this. Iran – till now all the cooperation with this country stayed within international laws. What Putin did declare was that “Iran with nuclear weapons or potential for it’s creation is unacceptible for us. And we are not going to play anti-americam games…”
2. Gas and oil perssure. Till now Russia respected all the hydrocarbons supply contracts with Europe. As for Belorussia and Ucraine. Did anyone ever thought it can really have more simple explanation. More commercial, less political? Till recently we were selling them gas for prices much lower than for Europe. It was a gesture of political favor. Since the political situation changed to worse, why should we keep making favours and lose money? And with Ukraine… Excuse me, they were stealing gas directed to Europe and prepaid from the pipeline. How else should we act, give them more?
3. Missiles. What can I comment. Putin made clear and simple declaratiions on that. Besides that it’s not fair. We received promises from NATO and US officials of no expansion of the block after taking russian troops out of Europe. And did not demand written declarations hoping on good political will.
How else should we react on all that what’s going on now?
Could, would, probably… after all that it’s quite a radical conclusion – Russia’s Putin Willing To Risk New Battle With West
3 May, 2007 at 3:05 pm
Che,
Putin is systematically removing freedoms in mother Russia that Boris let free. He is bringing the state back to a central government. The man is an egomaniac, that is hell bent on showing that Russia matters.
One problem with that is that some of the old countries of the Soviet Bloc are now in the EU, because aligning with Russia would be foolish. The EU is how Germany intends to dominate Europe again*, through the help of the ignorant French.
I think that the US does have a vested interest in keeping a missile defense base in Poland. They need to stop rogue states. And those aren’t necessarily Iran. When/How were all t he warheads accounted for when the Soviet Bloc disintegrated? That’s easy – they weren’t. If they were so concerned about all these developments in the Middle East (Iran’s nukes, then why are they selling them surface to air missles, and Mig 31s?
If a larger war breaks out in Chechnya, a lot of oil reserves will be tied up. If Shell’s patent for extracting crude from shale can come in under$40 a barrel, Russia is gonna have to regroup again. Just like the house of Saud will.
*That is only a theory
What is more important is that we have a missile defense system around Prague. Prague is the new Rio.
3 May, 2007 at 4:54 pm
To Blackdog
Putin is systematically…
O yeah? I live there, pal.
1. What is your criterium of being an egomaniac? I live in this country and see no signs of personality cult, as well as people I know.
2. The question of removing freedom is quite doubtfull, I disputed on that with Bulldod:
http://doctorbulldog.wordpress.com/2007/04/24/russian-edict-america-is-an-enemy/#comments
What Boris left was not much of a freedom but disorder, anarchy and mess. It’s not correct to expose organising things or some government actions to restore order (which is allowed in other countries) as freedoms removal.
My personal freedom and of people I know is OK too.
3. Things like disarmament and nuc. weap. control are subject to bilateral inspections (US-Russia). No major country ever officially declared possible loss by Russia of a warhead. There is no reason to think that it is not counted and well guarded, because they are.
4. Mig-31 is an interceptor, a defense weapon, as well as SAM. You think Iran has no right to maintain it’s defense potential up to date (before they had old stuff)? It’s for UNO to decide, but not for the US alone.
5. The “egomaniak” did everything to bring peace to Chechnia. Now there is no signs of possible larger war.
3 May, 2007 at 8:23 pm
Che,
I am not unfamiliar with Russia. I have Russian friends and traveled to Russia with a previous job. The idea of who can run for an office is controlled; it’s not like any old schmo can do it. You need Putin’s blessing, basically.
It is not just my opinion on Putin’s Russia.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/06/AR2005060601723.html
The Chechen war seems a lot like Hungary’s revolt from where I stand. They wanted to leave when the soviet union dissolved, and Russia fought to keep them. And although not as intense, there are still issues with Chechnya, as the fighting has become much more terrorist/guerrilla like. And it has spread beyond Chechnya proper.
There is nothing to worry about a nation defending itself, but if you are selling them the weapons, then don’t complain when they bite the hand that feeds them. The US needs to learn that as well. That is not just a Russian problem.
3 May, 2007 at 8:44 pm
No one said we are 100% democrtatic state (which I also mentioned it indirectly in my very first post). We have our own specifics. To explain that will take to much time typing.
As for Chechnya, it’s a long topic too. Things are not like most western media present it. I just have friends who fought there.